UK ZEV mandate review sets out four 2030 options

The consultation, published on 14 August, runs until 23 October 2026 and covers the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes Order. Parts 1 to 4 are being conducted jointly with the Scottish Government, Welsh Government and Northern Ireland Department for Infrastructure.

What the ZEV mandate actually does

The ZEV mandate came into force in January 2024. It sets an annual target for the proportion of each manufacturer’s new car and van registrations that must be zero emission.

The current headline target for cars is 33% in 2026, rising to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030. For vans, the equivalent targets are 24%, 34%, 46%, 58% and 70%.

These headline percentages are not the same as a simple national BEV sales quota. Manufacturers can use mechanisms including trading, banking, borrowing and transfers between the ZEV and CO2 schemes to meet their obligations. That means actual BEV market share can sit below the headline target while manufacturers remain compliant.

Four 2030 target pathways are being considered

For cars, three of the four illustrative pathways reduce the 2030 headline target from the current 80%. The fourth retains the existing trajectory but extends key compliance flexibilities. Equivalent options are proposed for vans.

ZEV mandate target options — **Figure 1.** Comparison of the four 2030 ZEV mandate target pathways currently under consultation for cars and vans.

The differences begin from 2027. Under the 70% car option, the annual targets would be 36% in 2027, 46% in 2028, 58% in 2029 and 70% in 2030. The lowest pathway would instead move through 35%, 37%, 42% and 50% before accelerating to 100% by 2035.

Option 4 keeps the current headline car trajectory of 38%, 52%, 66% and 80% over the same period, but would extend key flexibilities such as borrowing, banking and CO2 conversion.

Where the car market is now

The review arrives while BEV registrations are growing strongly, but the market remains below the current headline mandate trajectory.

Market share vs targets July 2026 — **Figure 2.** Comparison of current and forecast UK BEV market share against the existing ZEV mandate headline trajectory for 2026 and 2027.

SMMT recorded 43,106 new BEVs in July, up 44.5% year on year and accounting for 27.5% of all new-car registrations. Across the first seven months of 2026, 327,683 BEVs were registered, giving them a 25.3% market share.

SMMT’s latest outlook expects BEVs to take 27.4% of a 2.18 million new-car market in 2026 and 32.1% in 2027. Those forecasts remain below the current headline mandate targets of 33% and 38%, although the gap cannot be read directly as non-compliance because of the scheme’s flexibilities.

PHEVs are also growing quickly. July registrations rose 33.6% to 23,359, giving plug-in hybrids a 14.9% share of the new-car market. That becomes more relevant if compliance flexibilities are extended and PHEVs continue to play a larger role in manufacturers’ transition strategies.

The 2030 and 2035 end points remain in place

The consultation is not proposing to abandon the government’s main end points. New cars relying solely on petrol or diesel are still due to be phased out from 2030, while all new cars and vans must be zero emission by 2035.

The review is about the annual path between now and those dates, including how much flexibility manufacturers should have when meeting the targets.

What different trajectories could mean for charging

The rate at which BEVs enter the vehicle parc feeds directly into assumptions used for public charging, home installations, workplace charging, fleet conversion and future electricity demand.

A lower 2030 trajectory would not remove the need for charging infrastructure, but it could change the pace of demand growth and the utilisation assumptions behind some investment decisions. The government says more than two million electric vehicles are already registered in the UK and that the public charging network now exceeds 120,000 charge points.

The consultation closes at 11:59pm on 23 October 2026. Any resulting changes would require future amendments to the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes Order.